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And that pump shut off.|循环就此停滞

And the heat transfer stopped.|热量交换终止

And Europe went back into an ice age for another 900 to 1,000 years.|欧洲又进入900到1000年的冰河时代

And the change from conditions like we have here today|从我们现在的状态

to an ice age|转化到冰河时代

took place in perhaps as little as 1 0 years' time.|仅仅需要10年的时间

So that's a sudden jump.|这就是一个突变

Now, of course that's not gonna happen again|这样的情形现在当然不会发生

because the glaciers of North America are not there, and...|北美洲没有这样的冰川

Is there any other big chunk of ice anywhere near there?|那附近有没有大片的冰层呢？

Oh, yeah.|有的

We'll come back to that one.|我们等会儿来说它

It's extremely frustrating to me|我奔走呼吁 各方交涉

to communicate over and over again, as clearly as I can.|却感到无比的沮丧

And we are still, by far,|the worst contributor to the problem.|我们国家就是这一危机 的罪魁祸首

And I look around|我环顾四周

and look for really meaningful signs|想看到明显的标志

that we're about to really change.|表示我们在寻求改变

I don't see it right now.|却什么也看不到

A number of very reputable scientists have said that one factor of air pollution|一些知名科学家称空气污染

is oxides of nitrogen from decaying vegetation.|来自腐烂的植物散发的氮氧化合物

This is what causes the haze that gave the big Smoky Mountains their name.|这也就是大烟山闻名的大雾的由来

Thank you very much, okay.|非常感谢

This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme,|这个人是极端的环境主义者

we'll be up to our neck in owls and out of work for every American.|会造成人心惶惶 大量失业

This guy is crazy.|他是个疯子

Even if humans were causing global warming, and we are not,|就算人类是在造成全球变暖 尽管我们没有

this could be maybe the greatest hoax ever perpetrated|这也是对美国的公民

on the American people.|一次最大的欺骗

We're dealing with something that's highly emotional.|这完全是意气用事

If an issue is not|如果一个问题

on the tips of their constituents' tongues,|没能得到当权者的重视

it's easy for them to ignore it.|他们很容易就可以忽视它

To say, "Well, we'll deal with that tomorrow. "|推辞说“容我们日后商议”

So the same phenomena of changing all these patterns|这种种变化

is also affecting the seasons.|也影响着季节变迁

Here is a study from the Netherlands.|这是荷兰的一项研究

The peak arrival date for migratory birds|鸟类迁徙的高峰期

25 years ago was April 25th,|25年前是4月25日

and their chicks hatched on June the 3rd.|6月3日雏鸟孵化出壳

Just at the time when the caterpillars were coming out.|此时毛虫刚好出来活动

Nature's plan.|配合得天衣无缝

But 20 years of warming later,|20年的升温

the caterpillars peaked two weeks earlier,|造成毛虫活跃高峰期提前2周

and the chicks tried to catch up with it, but they couldn't.|尽管雏鸟试图适应 却无法跟上

And so, they're in trouble.|这样就带来了问题

And there are millions of ecological niches|现在有无数这样的生态位

that are affected by global warming in just this way.|正受到全球变暖的影响

This is the number of days with frost in Southern Switzerland over the last 1 00 years.|这是过去100年 瑞士南部结冰的天数

It has gone down rapidly. But now watch this.|正急剧下降 但是请看这个

This is the number of invasive exotic species|这是入侵的外来物种

that have rushed in to fill the new ecological niches that are opening up.|急剧增长 填补增加的生态位

That's happening here in the United States, too.|在美国有同样的情形

You've heard of the pine beetle problem?|各位都听说过“松树甲虫”事件

Those pine beetles used to be killed by the cold winters,|过去 这些松树甲虫会被严冬冻死

but there are fewer days of frost,|但结冰的天数减少

and so the pine trees are being devastated.|松树于是遭到破坏

This is part of 1 4 million acres of spruce trees in Alaska|在阿拉斯加有1400万亩云杉

that have been killed by bark beetles. The exact same phenomenon.|被皮蠹虫破坏 是一样的现象

There are cities that were founded|有的城市得以建立

because they were just above the mosquito line.|是因为高于蚊子活跃区

Nairobi is one, Harare is another. There are plenty of others.|如奈洛比、哈拉雷… 以及其他一些城市

Now the mosquitoes, with warming, are climbing to higher altitudes.|如今随着温度升高 蚊子飞到更高的地方

There are a lot of vectors for infectious diseases that are worrisome to us|一些令人不安的传染病

that are also expanding their range.|也传播得越来越广

Not only mosquitoes, but all of these others as well.|除了蚊子 还有其余这些

And we've had 30 so-called new diseases|在过去的25年里

that have emerged just in the last quarter century.|又发现了30种所谓的“新疾病”

And a lot of them, like SARS, have caused tremendous problems.|比如造成了严重影响的“非典”

The resistant forms of tuberculosis. There are others.|就是肺结核的新变种 还有其他的疾病

And there's been a re-emergence of some diseases|还有一些疾病死灰复燃

that were once under control.|尽管曾经被人类征服

The avian flu, of course, quite a serious matter, as you know.|众人熟知的禽流感 就是一个严重的例子

West Nile Virus.|西尼罗热

It came to the eastern shore of Maryland in 1 999.|1999年登陆马里兰东岸

Two years later, it was across the Mississippi.|2年后就越过了密西西比

And two years after that, it had spread across the continent.|又是2年过去 它已经肆虐整个大陆

But these are very troubling signs.|这都是很隐蔽的信号

Coral reefs all over the world,|世界各地的珊瑚礁

because of global warming and other factors,|由于全球变暖等原因

are bleaching and they end up like this.|正逐渐褪色 变成这个样子

And all the fish species that depend on the coral reefs|那些依赖珊瑚礁的鱼类

are also in jeopardy as a result.|也濒临灭绝

Overall, species loss is now occurring|总的来说 现在物种灭绝的速度

at a rate 1,000 times greater than the natural background rate.|超过自然速度的1000倍以上

This brings me to the second canary in the coal mine.|这也引出了第二大“警钟”

Antarctica.|南极

The largest mass of ice on the planet by far.|目前地球上最大面积的冰层

A friend of mine said in 1 978,|我的一位朋友1978年说

"If you see the breakup of ice shelves along the Antarctic peninsula,|“要是你看到南极半岛的冰架裂开”

"watch out|“要小心”

"because that should be seen as an alarm bell for global warming."|“这应该看作是全球变暖的征兆”

And actually, if you look at the peninsula up close,|事实上 要是仔细观察南极半岛

every place where you see one of these green blotches here|这些绿斑所在之处

is an ice shelf larger than the state of Rhode Island|就是过去15到20年里断裂的冰架

that has broken up just in the last 1 5 to 20 years.|它们的规模都超过了罗得岛州

I want to focus on just one of them.|我想关注一个冰架

It's called Larsen B.|它叫做Larsen B

I want you to Iook at these black pools here.|请各位看这里的黑块

It makes it seem almost as if we're looking through the ice|看起来就像穿过了冰层

to the ocean beneath. But that's an illusion.|看到了下面的海洋 但这只是错觉

This is melting water that forms in pools,|这些都是正在融化的冰水

and if you were flying over it in a helicopter,|要是坐在直升机上飞过

you'd see it's 700 feet tall.|你会看到它高达700尺

They are so majestic, so massive.|无比宏伟

In the distance are the mountains and just before the mountains|远处是冰山 而冰山前面

is the shelf of the continent, there.|就是冰架

This is floating ice,|这是浮冰

and there's land-based ice on the down slope of those mountains.|这是陆地沿着山坡延伸的冰层

From here to the mountains is about 20 to 25 miles.|从这里到冰山有大约20到25英里

Now they thought this would be stable for at least 100 years,|人们原以为尽管全球变暖

even with global warming.|这里不会有什么变化

The scientists who study these ice shelves|但是研究这个的科学家

were absolutely astonished|看到这些画面时

when they were looking at these images.|大吃一惊

Starting on January 31, 2002|从2002年1月31日起

in a period of 35 days|短短35天内

this ice shelf completely disappeared.|冰架完全消失了

They could not figure out how in the world this happened so rapidly.|他们都弄不明白 世界变化怎会如此之快

And they went back to try to figure out where they'd gone wrong.|他们回过头来检查

And that's when they focused on those pools of melting water.|结果发现了这些融化的冰水

But even before they could figure out what had happened there,|就在他们还没有弄明白究竟时

something else started going wrong.|又发生了别的事情

When the floating sea-based ice cracked up,|当漂浮的海基冰层破裂

it no longer held back the ice on the land,|它不能再保持陆地的冰层

and the land-based ice then started falling into the ocean.|结果陆基冰层开始掉入海洋

It was like letting the cork out of a bottle.|就像是瓶塞被顶出酒瓶一样

And there's a difference between floating ice and land-based ice.|浮冰和陆基冰层并不相同

That's like the difference between an ice cube floating in a glass of water,|就好比杯子里的冰块

which when it melts doesn't raise the level of water in the glass,|一个浮在水面 融化之后不会使水位升高

and a cube that's sitting atop a stack of ice cubes|另一个堆在水里

which melts and flows over the edge.|融化后使水漫了出来

That's why the citizens of these Pacific nations|这就是为什么 太平洋沿岸的人民

have all had to evacuate to New Zealand.|得疏散到新西兰

But I want to focus on West Antarctica|现在我想关注南极洲西部

because it illustrates two factors about land-based ice and sea-based ice.|因为它体现了陆基和海基冰层两大要素

It's a little of both. It's propped up on tops of islands,|它两者兼有 因为它其实是由许多小岛组成

but the ocean comes up underneath it.|而海洋就在其下面

So as the ocean gets warmer, it has an impact on it.|所以海洋升温会对其产生影响

If this were to go,|如果它消失了

sea level worldwide would go up 20 feet.|全球海面会升高20英尺

They've measured disturbing changes on the underside of this ice sheet.|人们监测了冰原底层的异常变化

It's considered relatively more stable, however,|对于另一个 相同大小的冰层而言

than another big body of ice that's roughly the same size.|它的变化还算相对稳定的

Greenland would also raise sea level almost 20 feet if it went.|若格陵兰消失 同样可以使海面上升20尺

A friend of mine just brought back some pictures|我的一个朋友刚刚带回来一组照片

of what's going on on Greenland right now.|关于格陵兰的近况

Dramatic changes. These are the same kinds of pools|戏剧性地 这里也有类似的冰泊

that formed here, on this ice shelf in Antarctica.|同南极的冰架情形一样

And the scientists thought|科学家以为

that when that water seeped back into the ice, it would just refreeze.|水一遇到冰 就会冻起来

But they found out that actually what happens|但他们发现事实上

is that it just keeps on going. It tunnels to the bottom|水一直往里流 一直延伸到底部

and makes the ice like Swiss cheese,|整个冰架就像一块瑞士奶酪一样

sort of like termites.|或是白蚁洞

This shows what happens to the crevasses,|这里展示了裂隙造成的后果

and when lakes form, they create what are called moulins.|一旦形成了湖 就会产生冰川蜗穴

The water goes down to the bottom|水一直流到底部

and it lubricates where the ice meets the bedrock.|在底部的冰和基岩之间起到润滑作用

See these people here for scale.|这里是一群人在勘测

This is not on the edge of Greenland, this is in the middle of the ice mass.|而这不是在格陵兰岛边缘 而是在冰层正中间

This is a massive rushing torrent|of fresh melt water|出现了冰雪融水组成的湍急水流

tunneling straight down through the Greenland ice|穿透格陵兰的冰层

to the bedrock below.|直流入底部的基岩

Now, to some extent, there has always been seasonal melting|尽管冰层一直都有季节性的融化

and moulins have formed in the past, but not like now.|过去也有冰川蜗穴形成 但与现在的情形截然不同

In 1 992, they measured this amount of melting in Greenland.|这是1992年人们测量的 格陵兰融冰的数量

Ten years later, this is what happened.|这里是10年以后的景象

And here is the melting from 2005.|到了2005年则变成这样

Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that|托尼·布莱尔的科学顾问说过

because of what's happening in Greenland right now,|以格陵兰目前的状况

the maps of the world will have to be redrawn.|我们不得不重绘世界地图

If Greenland broke up and melted,|如果格陵兰融化瓦解

or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica|或者格陵兰和南极洲西部

broke up and melted,|各融化一半

this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida.|佛罗里达将会是这样的场景

This is what would happen to San Francisco Bay.|这是旧金山湾

A lot of people live in these areas.|这些地方都有大量人口

The Netherlands, one of the low countries.|低地国家荷兰

Absolutely devastating.|完全是毁灭性的灾难

The area around Beijing that's home to tens of millions of people.|北京周边地区 上千万人口受灾

Even worse, in the area around Shanghai,|上海这边更糟

there are 40 million people.|有4千万人口

Worse still, Calcutta, and to the east, Bangladesh,|这边也不容乐观 从加尔各答到东部的孟买

the area covered includes 60 million people.|将殃及6千万人口

Think of the impact of a couple hundred thousand refugees|想象一下成百上千的难民

when they're displaced by an environmental event.|因为环境变迁而流离失所

And then imagine the impact of a hundred million or more.|再想象若变成上亿人 会有怎样的影响

Here's Manhattan.|曼哈顿

This is the World Trade Center memorial site.|这是世贸中心纪念碑

And after the horrible events of 9/1 1,|9.11的以后

we said, "Never again."|人们说“愿悲剧不再重演”

But this is what would happen to Manhattan.|但结果呢

They can measure this precisely,|科学家可以算出精确的数字

just as the scientists could predict precisely|就像他们准确地预测了

how much water would breach the levees in New Orleans.|多大的洪水会冲垮新奥尔良的堤坝

The area where the World Trade Center Memorial is to be located|世贸中心纪念碑坐落的地方

would be underwater.|将被水淹没

Is it possible that we should prepare against other threats besides terrorists?|除了恐怖主义 我们是不是该应对其他的威胁？

Maybe we should be concerned about other problems as well.|也许还有别的问题需要加以关注

1.3 billion people.|13亿人口

An economy that's surging.|飞速增长的经济

More and more energy needs.|越来越大的能源需求

Massive coal reserves.|丰富的煤炭储量

The coal belt in Northern China,|中国北部的煤矿带

-Inner Mongolia. -Right.|- 内蒙古 - 嗯

Then there's Shaanxi province.|还有陕西省

-And also biggest coal mine here. -Up here.|- 这里也有大型煤矿 - 就在这里

-Yeah. -Now, is that an open pit mine?|- 是的 - 露天煤矿？

-Yes. -Yes.|是的…

Every time I've visited China,|- 我每次去中国 接触到那些科学家 - …露天煤矿

I've learned from their scientists. They're right on the cutting edge.|- 都感觉中国也面临严峻考验 - …不需要深挖

Give me some sense of the numbers of|能不能给我个概念

new coal fire generating plants.|目前新建的火力发电站有多少

Well, I have to say that the number is enormous|数字十分惊人

because it's so profitable.|因为有巨大的利益驱动

This issue is really the same for China as it is for the US.|中国的问题同美国一样

We are both using old technologies that are dirty and polluting.|我们都使用陈旧、易污染的旧技术

...more flooding and more drought|…越来越多的洪涝和干旱

and stronger storms is going up,|还有越来越强的风暴

and global warming is implicated in the pattern.|这一切都暗示着全球变暖

And if you were to give some suggestions to everybody here|要是请您给在座各位

about, like, what we can do for the situation now.|就目前的状况提出建议…

Separating the truth from the fiction|分清真理和谬论

and the accurate connections from the misunderstandings|你们今天所学到的知识

is part of what you learn here.|就能帮助你分辨真伪

But when the warnings are accurate and based on sound science,|但当那些确凿的 有严密科学依据的忠告到来

then we as human beings, whatever country we live in,|那么作为人类 不分国籍

have to find a way to make sure|必须接受这样的忠告

that the warnings are heard and responded to.|然后作出应有的回应

We both have a hard time shaking loose the familiar patterns|我们为了废除“陋习”

that we've relied on in the past.|都作出了艰苦的努力

We both face completely unacceptable consequences.|却面对着难以接受的结果

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And there are three factors that are causing this collision,|有三大因素促成了这一冲突

and the first is population.|第一是人口

When my generation, the baby boom generation, was born after World War II,|我这代生于二战之后的“婴儿潮”

the population had just crossed the two billion mark.|当时世界人口刚刚越过20亿

Now, I'm in my 50s,|现在我50多岁

and it's already gone to almost six and a half billion.|世界人口已经达到65亿

And if I reach the demographic expectation for the baby boomers,|我要是能活到“婴儿潮” 这代人的平均寿命

it'll go over nine billion.|这个数字会变成90亿

So if it takes 10,000 generations to reach two billion|人口增长用了10000代才达到20亿

and then in one human lifetime, ours,|而在我们这一代

it goes from two billion to nine billion,|就从20亿飙升到90亿

something profoundly different's going on right now.|同时引起了翻天覆地的变化

We're putting more pressure on the Earth.|地球的压力越来越大

Most of it's in the poorer nations of the world.|而且集中在那些贫困国家

This puts pressure on food demand.|食品紧张

It puts pressure on water demand.|淡水紧张

It puts pressure on vulnerable natural resources,|脆弱的自然资源也受到威胁

and this pressure's one of the reasons|这也是为什么

why we have seen all the devastation of the forest,|各地的植被遭受严重破坏

not only tropical, but elsewhere.|不仅仅在雨林 各地都是

It is a political issue.|这是一个政治问题

This is the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic.|海地和多米尼加之间的国界线

One set of policies here, another set of policies here.|左边一个政权 右边另一个政权

Much of it comes not only because of cutting, but also burning.|破坏植被的不仅仅是砍伐 还有焚烧

Almost 30% of all the CO2 that goes up each year into the atmosphere|每年30%的二氧化碳排放

comes from forest burning.|来自焚烧森林

This is a time-lapse picture of the Earth at night over a six-month period|这是在6个月里 地球的夜间动态延时照片

showing the lights of the cities in white|城市的灯光是白色

and the burning forests and brush fires in red.|红色则代表森林大火

The yellow areas are the gas flares, like these in Siberia.|黄色代表煤气燃烧的火焰 像这里的西伯利亚

And that brings me to the second factor|这样就引出了

that has transformed our relationship to the Earth.|改变人与自然关系的第二大因素

The scientific and technological revolution is a great blessing|科学和技术革命造福了全人类

in that it has given us tremendous benefits|在诸如交通和医疗方面

in areas like medicine and communications.|给我们带来了诸多便利

But this new power that we have also brings a responsibility|但也赋予我们责任

to think about its consequences.|去考虑可能造成的后果

Here's a formula to think about.|这里有个公式

Old habits plus old technology have predictable consequences.|旧习惯结合旧技术 其结果可以预见

Old habits that are hard to change plus new technology|难以改变的旧习惯加上新技术

can have dramatically altered consequences.|却会得到截然相反的结果

Warfare with spears and bows and arrows|刀光剑影的战争

and rifles and machine guns, that's one thing.|或者机枪火炮 这是一回事

But then a new technology came.|但当新技术出现

We have to think differently about war|我们则必须用新的眼光来看待战争

because the new technologies so completely transformed|因为新技术已经完全颠覆了

the consequences of that old habit|过去战争的概念

that we can't just mindlessly continue the patterns of the past.|因此我们不能 盲目地走过去的老路

In the same way, we have always exploited the Earth for sustenance.|同样地 我们耕作以获取食物

For most of our existence, we used relatively simple tools.|大部分人类历史 我们都使用相对简单的工具

The plow, the tractor.|犁、拖拉机

But even tools like shovels are different now.|但就是铲子 今天也大不同于过去

Shovel used to be this.|这是以前的铲子

Shovels have gotten bigger.|现在却要大得多

And every year, they get more powerful.|每一年 它都越来越强大

So our ability to have an effect, in this case on the surface of the Earth,|所以在这个问题上 人类对地球表面的影响

is utterly transformed.|已经大不同于昨天

You can say the same thing about irrigation, which is a great thing.|你会认为对于灌溉来说 进步是件好事

But when we divert rivers without considering the consequences,|[ 科罗拉多河 ] 但要是我们不计后果地从河里抽水

then sometimes rivers no longer reach the sea.|河流也许再也没法流入大海

There were two rivers in Central Asia|中亚有两条河

that were used by the former Soviet Union|曾经被苏联盲目地

for irrigating cotton fields unwisely.|用来灌溉棉花田

The Aral Sea was fed by them.|咸海就是由它们汇成

It used to be the fourth largest inland sea in the world.|它曾经是世界上第4大内陆海

When I went there, I saw this strange sight|但我到那里时 看到了这幅奇怪的景象

of an enormous fishing fleet resting in the sand.|一艘巨大的渔船停在沙漠里

This is the canal that the fishing industry desperately tried to build|这是绝望的捕鱼业 面对消失的海岸线

to get to the receding shoreline.|开挖的沟渠

Making mistakes in our dealings with nature can have|同自然打交道 稍有不慎

bigger consequences now|就会酿成恶果

because our technologies are often bigger than the human scale.|新技术规模上往往超出普通人

When you put them all together, they've made us a force of nature.|把它们结合到一起 就能赋予我们强大的力量

And this is also a political issue.|这同样是一个政治问题

This is a computer map of the world|这是电脑绘制的世界地图

that distorts to show the relative contributions to global warming.|按照对全球变暖 影响力的比例绘制

In our country, we are responsible for more than all of South America,|我们国家的影响 等于整个南美洲

all of Africa, all of the Middle East,|加上非洲、中东

all of Asia, all combined.|以及亚洲的总合

The per capita average in Africa, India, China, Japan, EU, Russia.|这是非洲、印度、中国、日本 欧盟、俄罗斯的人均二氧化碳排放

There's where we are. Way, way above everyone else.|还有我们的 远远超过其余几个

If you take population into account, it's a little bit different.|要是乘上人口 情况稍有不同

China's playing a bigger role, so is Europe.|中国和欧盟都有所增加

But we are still by all odds the largest contributor.|但我们仍然是最大的“贡献者”

And so it is up to us to look at how we think about it,|现在轮到我们来检视自己的看法了

because our way of thinking is the third and final factor|因为这是第三个 也是最后一个

that transforms our relationship to the Earth.|改变人与自然关系的要素

If a frog jumps into a pot of boiling water,|一只青蛙跳进沸水里

it jumps right out again because it senses the danger.|会马上跳出来 因为它能感觉到危险

But the very same frog,|但同一只青蛙

if it jumps into a pot of lukewarm water|跳进冷水里

that is slowly brought to a boil,|然后慢慢加热到沸腾

will just sit there and it won't move.|它只会一动不动地呆在那里

It'll just sit there, even as the temperature continues to go up and up.|就算温度不断升高 也不知道离开

It'll stay there, until... Until it's rescued.|就一直这样 直到… 直到被救出去

It's important to rescue the frog.|这只青蛙是得救起来

But the point is this.|但转念一想呢

Our collective nervous system is like that frog's nervous system.|我们大众意识和那只青蛙一样

It takes a sudden jolt sometimes before we become aware of a danger.|对于突发危险有应急行为

If it seems gradual, even if it really is happening quickly,|但若其逐渐变化 尽管速度飞快

we're capable of just sitting there and not responding.|我们也会坐视不管

And not reacting.|无动于衷

I don't remember a time when I was a kid|在我童年的记忆里

when summertime didn't mean working with tobacco.|没有哪个夏天 不是在忙碌的种植烟草中度过

It was just... I used to love it. It was during that period|我…一度很喜欢这一切

when working with the guys on the farm|同农场里的人们一起劳作

seemed like fun to me.|十分开心

Starting in 1 964, with the Surgeon General's report,|1964年卫生部公布报告

the evidence was laid out on the connection|吸烟与肺癌

between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer.|被证实存在必然联系

We kept growing tobacco.|我们仍继续种植烟草

Nancy was almost 10 years older than me,|Nancy比我大10岁

and there were only the two of us.|我们俩总是在一起

She was my protector|她是我的保护神

and my friend at the same time.|也是我的好朋友

She started smoking when she was a teenager|她从青年时开始吸烟

and never stopped.|从未间断

She died of lung cancer.|最后死于肺癌

That's one of the ways you don't want to die.|你绝不想那样死去

The idea that we had been|一想到自己

part of that economic pattern|作为这个经济现象的一分子

that produced the cigarettes,|生产香烟

that produced the cancer,|也“生产”了癌症

it was so...|简直…

It was so painful on so many levels.|感到无比的痛苦

My father, he had grown tobacco all his life. He stopped.|我那种了一辈子的烟草的父亲 从此没有再种

Whatever explanation|过去任何变故

had seemed to make sense in the past, just didn't cut it anymore.|都没有能阻止他

He stopped it.|这次却毅然收手

It's just human nature to take time to connect the dots. I know that.|顺藤摸瓜是人类天性 的确如此

But I also know that there can be a day of reckoning|我知道总有一天 当人们期望更快地知道结果

when you wish you had connected the dots more quickly.|就会回头重新审视整个过程

There are three misconceptions in particular that bedevil our thinking.|有三大误区迷惑了大众

First, isn't there a disagreement among scientists|第一 科学界对于这个问题

about whether the problem is real or not?|是否还存在分歧

Actually, not really.|事实上 没有

There was a massive study of every scientific article|曾有一项科学论文大型调查

in a peer-reviewed journal written on global warming for the last 1 0 years.|对象是过去10年里 所有关于全球变暖的专家评审文章

And they took a big sample of 1 0%, 928 articles.|做了10%的海量采样 共有928篇

And you know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus|知不知道这里面 反对这一全球共识

that we're causing global warming and that it's a serious problem?|是人类引起全球变暖 或认为该问题无足轻重的有多少篇？

Out of the 928, zero.|所有的928篇里面 一篇也没有

The misconception that there's disagreement about the science|关于科学界存在分歧的谬论

has been deliberately created by a relatively small group of people.|其实是一小撮人故意捏造的

One of their internal memos leaked.|有一份他们的内部文件泄露出来

And here's what it said, according to the press.|报纸上是这样写的

Their objective is to reposition global warming|他们的目的就是 “将全球变暖”

as theory rather than fact.|“重新定义为理论而不是事实”

This has happened before.|[医生都爱抽“骆驼牌” ] 这是陈年旧事了

After the Surgeon General's report.|就在卫生部的报告公布以后

One of their memos leaked 40 years ago. Here's what they said.|40年前的一份文件泄露出来 这是他们的话

"Doubt is our product,|“公众的顾虑就是销量的保证”

"since it is the best means of creating a controversy in the public's mind."|“这是迷惑大众最有力的切入点”

But have they succeeded?|他们成功了吗？

You'll remember that there were 928 peer-reviewed articles.|各位还记得那928篇专家评审的论文

Zero percent disagreed with the consensus.|没有一篇反对这一共识

There was another study of all the articles in the popular press.|这里是另一个面向大众读物的调查

Over the last 1 4 years, they looked at a sample of 636.|在过去14年里 抽样调查了636篇

More than half of them said,|一半以上的文章写

"Well, we're not sure. It could be a problem, may not be a problem."|“这个问题嘛 我不清楚 可能是也可能不是”

So no wonder people are confused.|怪不得我们会如此迷惑

Hey.|喂

What did you find out?|发现什么了？

Working for who?|给谁工作？

Chief of Staff?|主管？

I'm gonna...|我要…

That's the White House environment office.|那是白宫环境办公室

American Petroleum Institute. It's fair to say that's the oil and gas lobby.|美国石油协会 可以说那就是个游说团

Is that fair?|可以这样说吗？

Totally fair.|完全可以

Do a little bit more and see who his clients were.|作进一步调查 看看他们的客户是谁

So he was defending the Exxon Valdez thing.|这么说他是在为埃克森·瓦尔迪兹的船难辨护

Uh, very. Thank you.|很好 谢谢你

Scientists have an independent obligation|科学家有一个不容侵犯的职责

to respect and present the truth as they see it.|就是尊重他发现的真相 并公之于众

Why do you directly contradict yourself|为什么你关于这个问题的陈述

in the testimony you're giving about this scientific question?|会自相矛盾？

The last paragraph in that section was not a paragraph which I wrote.|文章最后一段不是我写的

That was added to my testimony.|是别人加上去的

If they force you to change a scientific conclusion,|要是他们强迫你更改科学结论

it's a form of science fraud by them.|那就是他们进行学术造假

You know, in the Soviet Union, ordering scientists|前苏联强迫科学家

to change their studies to conform with the ideology...|篡改研究成功以取悦其政权

I've seen scientists|我看到科学家们

who were persecuted,|[ 气象专家称NASA欲封其口 ] 遭到迫害

ridiculed,|受人奚落

deprived of jobs, income,|丢了饭碗 失去经济来源

simply because the facts they discovered|仅仅因为他们发现的

led them to an inconvenient truth|是一个“不合时宜”的真相

that they insisted on telling.|他们却坚持要将其公之于众

He worked for the American Petroleum Institute.|他在美国石油协会工作

And in January of 2001,|2001年1月起

he was put by the president in charge of environmental policy.|主持制定环境政策

He received a memo from the EPA|他收到美国环保署的一份文件

that warned about global warming|警告全球变暖的问题

and he edited. He has no scientific training whatsoever.|然后做了修改和批示 尽管他根本没有经过任何科学培训

But he took it upon himself to overrule the scientist.|但他自作主张地反驳了科学家

I said, "I want to see what this guy's handwriting looks like."|我说“我想瞻仰一下这位仁兄的书法”

This is the memo from the EPA. These are his actual pen strokes.|这是环保署的原文 这些是他的笔迹

He says, "No, you can't say this. This is just speculation."|他说“你不能这么说 纯粹就是猜测”

This was embarrassing to the White House,|这是白宫的耻辱

so this fellow resigned a few days later.|所以这位仁兄几天之后就辞职了

And the day after he resigned, he went to work for Exxon Mobil.|而辞职当天 就投奔到埃克森·美孚门下

You know, more than 1 00 years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote this.|100年前 亚普顿·辛克莱写下了这段话

That it's difficult to get a man to understand something|“要是给他发薪水的要他往东”

if his salary depends upon his not understanding it.|“他怎么可能往西”

The second misconception.|第二大误区

Do we have to choose between the economy and the environment?|经济和环境 就像鱼和熊掌 不可兼得

This is a big one.|这个问题很大

Lot of people say we do.|很多人都这样认为

I was trying to convince the previous administration,|我曾劝说往届政府

the first Bush administration, to go to the Earth Summit.|老布什政府 劝说其加入地球峰会

And they organized a big White House conference|结果他们开了个白宫新闻发布会

to say, "Oh, we're on top of this."|说“美国无需自降身价”

And one of these view graphs caught my attention.|有一幅关于这个的漫画 引起了我的注意

And I want to talk to you about it for a minute.|我想专门谈一谈

Now here is the choice that we have to make|这就是我们面临的选择

according to this group.|根据这些人的说法

We have here a scales that balances two different things.|天平的两端是不同的东西

On one side, we have gold bars.|一边放着金条

Don't they look good?|看上去不错吧

I'd just like to have some of those gold bars.|给我两块就知足了

On the other side of the scales, the entire planet.|天平的另一端呢 整个地球！

[英学网] - 电影天堂-双语电影网 在线双语字幕-英语学习视频 - www.engxue.com

I think this is a false choice for two reasons.|我认为不存在这样的选择 原因有二

Number one, if we don't have a planet...|一 要是地球不存在了…

The other reason is that if we do the right thing,|另一个原因是 如我们做得好

then we're gonna create a lot of wealth|同样会带来滚滚财源

-and we're gonna create a lot of jobs. -Yes.|- 还会带来更多的工作机会 - 说得对

Because doing the right thing moves us forward.|正确的道路才能帮助我们前进

I've probably given this slide show 1,000 times.|这样的演说 我做了千百次

I would say, at least 1,000 times.|准确地说 至少有1000次

Nashville to Knoxville to Aspen and Sundance.|从纳什维尔到诺克斯维尔 阿斯本、圣得西

Los Angeles and San Francisco. Portland, Minneapolis.|洛杉矶、旧金山、波特兰、明尼阿波斯

Boston, New Haven, London, Brussels, Stockholm, Helsinki,|波斯顿、纽哈芬、伦敦、布鲁塞尔 斯德哥尔摩、赫尔辛基

Vienna, Munich, Italy and Spain|维也纳、慕尼黑、意大利、西班牙

and China, South Korea, Japan.|中国、韩国、日本

Thank you.|谢谢

I guess the thing I've spent more time on than anything else in this slide show|我认为自己在这个演讲上 投入空前的精力

is trying to identify|是想替人们清除

all those things in people's minds|那些思想上的顽石

that serve as obstacles to them understanding this.|以便人们能理解这一切

And whenever I feel like I've identified an obstacle,|无论何时我发现一块顽石

I try to take it apart, roll it away. Move it.|就会尽力将它打散、滚走、搬到一边

Demolish it, blow it up.|敲烂、炸得粉碎

I set myself a goal.|我给自己定下一个目标

Communicate this real clearly.|要将这一观念清楚地传播下去

The only way I know to do it|我所知道的唯一办法

is city by city,|就是一个城市一个城市

person by person,|一个人接一个人

family by family.|挨家挨户地演讲

-Bye-bye. Thank you again. -Bye.|- 再见 谢谢 - 再见

And I have faith that pretty soon|我坚信不久之后

enough minds are changed|唤醒足够多的人

that we cross a threshold.|我们就能迈过这个门槛

Let me give you an example|我来举例说明

of the wrong way to balance the economy and the environment.|错误地对待环境和经济平衡的后果

One part of this issue involves automobiles.|[ 温室气体排放标准 ] 其中一个与汽车相关

Japan has mileage standards up here.|[ 温室气体排放标准 ] 日本的续驶里程在这一水平

Europe plans to pass Japan.|欧盟计划超过日本

Our allies in Australia and Canada are leaving us behind.|我们的盟国澳大利亚和加拿大 也把我们远远抛在后面

Here is where we are.|这里是我们的标准

Now there's a reason for it.|为什么会这样呢

They say that we can't protect the environment too much|他们说美国不能太关注环境

without threatening the economy and threatening the automakers.|以至于影响了经济 威胁到汽车制造商

Because automakers in China might come in and just steal all our markets.|因为中国的汽车制造商 会跑进来蚕食我们的市场

Well, here is where China's auto mileage standards are now.|而这是中国目前的续驶里程标准

Way above ours.|远比我们高

We can't sell our cars in China today|我们没法买汽车给中国

because we don't meet the Chinese environmental standards.|因为没法达到中国的环境标准

California has taken an initiative|加利福利亚已经做出一个创举

to have higher-mileage cars sold in California.|规定其境内出售的汽车 要有更高的续驶里程

Now the auto companies have sued California|结果汽车商起诉加州政府

to prevent this law from taking effect|以阻止此项法律生效

because, as they point out, 1 1 years from now|因为他们宣称

this would mean that California would have to have cars for sale|这样就等于要求加州出售的汽车

that are as efficient 1 1 years from now|11年后

as China's are today.|能达到中国目前的水平

Clearly too onerous a provision to comply with.|这要求简直太“高”了

And is this helping our companies succeed?|那我们的公司是不是业绩如虹呢？

Well, actually, if you look at who's doing well in the world,|[ 市场占有率变化 ] 事实上 看看世界上谁做得最好

it's the companies that are building more-efficient cars.|是制造节能汽车的公司

And our companies are in deep trouble.|而我们的公司则陷入困境

Final misconception.|最后一大误区

If we accept that this problem is real,|“就算承认这一问题的存在”

maybe it's just too big to do anything about.|“我们也无能为力了”

And, you know, there are a lot of people who go straight from denial|很多人 从拒绝承认

to despair|径直走入绝望的阴影中

without pausing on the intermediate step|却不知道停下脚步

of actually doing something about the problem.|着手解决问题

And that's what I'd like to finish with. The fact that we already know|这就是我最后想谈的 目前人们已知的

everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.|能有效解决这一问题的方法

We've got to do a lot of things, not just one.|我们需要做大量的工作 而不仅仅局限于一件事

If we use more efficient|如果我们使用更节能的

electricity appliances,|家用电器

we can save this much off of the global warming pollution|就能减少这么多的污染排放

that would otherwise be put into the atmosphere.|这些原本都进入了大气

If we use other end-use efficiency, this much.|要是采用别的节能设备 能减少这么多

If we have higher mileage cars, this much.|拥有更多续驶里程的汽车 减少这么多

And all these begin to add up. Other transport efficiency,|还有更多 别的交通工具节能

renewable technology,|可再生能源

carbon capture and sequestration.|碳固存技术…

A big solution that you're gonna be hearing a lot more about.|还有更多的解决方案

They all add up,|这些都加到一起

and pretty soon we are below our 1 970 emissions.|我们很快就能将排放水平 降到1970年以下

We have everything we need,|各方面条件都齐备了

save perhaps political will.|我们还需要拯救我们的的政治意愿

But you know what? In America, political will is a renewable resource.|可不是？在美国 政治意愿就是可“再生”资源

We have the ability to do this.|我们有这个能力

Each one of us is a cause of global warming,|每个人都在引起全球变暖

but each of us can make choices to change that.|但我们可以选择改变这一现状

With the things we buy, the electricity we use, the cars we drive,|买的东西、用的电、开的车…

we can make choices to bring our individual carbon emissions to zero.|我们可以选择 将个人二氧化碳排放降到0

The solutions are in our hands.|解药就在你我手里

We just have to have the determination to make them happen.|我们只需要做出决定使其生效

Are we gonna be left behind as the rest of the world moves forward?|我们甘愿走在全世界的后面吗？

All of these nations have ratified Kyoto.|那么多国家认同京都议定书

There are only two advanced nations in the world that have not ratified Kyoto,|只有两个发达国家反对

and we are one of them. The other is Australia.|我们是其中之一 另一个是澳大利亚

Luckily, several states are taking the initiative.|幸运的是 很多州开始采取行动

The nine northeastern states have banded together|北部9个州已经联合起来

on reducing CO2.|着手减少二氧化碳排放

California and Oregon are taking the initiative.|加州和俄勒冈已经行动起来

Pennsylvania's exercising leadership on solar power and wind power.|宾夕法尼亚在利用 太阳能和风能上走在最前面

And US cities are stepping up to the plate.|美国的各大城市也纷纷采取行动

One after the other, we have seen|我们可以看到　一个个城市

all of these cities pledge to take on global warming.|［支持京都议定书的城市］ 致力于解决全球变暖问题

So what about the rest of us?|那我们呢？

Ultimately this question comes down to this.|这个问题最终落实到一点

Are we, as Americans,|我们 作为美国公民

capable of doing great things|有没有能力完成这一伟大义举

even though they are difficult?|就算前方路途坎坷？

Are we capable|我们有没有能力站起来

of rising above ourselves and above history?|立于人类历史之上？

Well, the record indicates that we do have that capacity.|过去的一切证明我们有这个能力

We formed a nation, we fought a revolution|我们建立了一个国家 发起了一个革命

and brought something new to this Earth,|还带来了新的创举

a free nation guaranteeing individual liberty.|一个保障个人独立的自由国家

America made a moral decision. Its slavery was wrong,|美国遵从道德的决定 否认了奴隶制

and that we could not be half free and half slave.|也不允许一半自由 一半奴役

We, as Americans, decided|我们美国人

that of course women should have the right to vote.|决定女性应当享有选举权

We defeated totalitarianism and won a war|我们打败极权主义 同时在太平洋和大西洋

in the Pacific and the Atlantic simultaneously.|获得了战争的胜利

We desegregated our schools.|我们在学校里废除了种族隔离

And we cured fearsome diseases like polio.|我们战胜了小儿麻痹症

We landed on the moon.|登上了月球

The very example of what's possible when we are at our best.|证明我们只要齐心 就没有什么不可能

We worked together in a completely bipartisan way|我们国内两党联起手来

to bring down communism.|推翻了communism

We have even solved a global environmental crisis before,|我们曾成功解决一大环境问题

the hole in the stratospheric ozone layer.|臭氧层空洞

This was said to be an impossible problem to solve|这曾被称为是不可能解决的

because it's a global environmental challenge|因为它是全球性的环境问题

requiring cooperation from every nation in the world.|需要全世界国家联手解决

But we took it on.|但我们成功了

And the United States took the lead in phasing out the chemicals|美国在淘汰有害化学物品上

that caused that problem.|也走在世界的前列

So now we have to use our political processes in our democracy,|因此我们需要 在政治上发扬民主主义

and then decide to act together to solve those problems.|齐心协力共渡难关

But we have to have a different perspective on this one.|同时还要从全新的视角看待这一危机

It's different from any problem we have ever faced before.|因为它绝不同于过去任何问题

You remember that home movie of the Earth spinning in space?|记不记得那个地球自转的短片？

One of those spacecraft continuing on out into the universe,|其中一个飞船继续向外飞行

when it got four billion miles out in space,|当它走到离地球40亿英里的地方

Carl Sagan said, "Let's take another picture of the Earth."|Carl Sagan说“让我们给地球再拍一张”

You see that pale blue dot?|你看到那个淡蓝色的点了？

That's us.|这就是我们

Everything that has ever happened in all of human history|人类历史的一切

has happened on that pixel.|都在这个小点上

All the triumphs and all the tragedies.|所有的成功、失败

All the wars, all the famines.|所有的战争、饥荒

All the major advances.|所有的重大发展

It's our only home.|这就是我们唯一的家园

And that is what is at stake.|如今它面临危机

Our ability to live on planet Earth,|危及到我们的生存

to have a future as a civilization.|和人类文明的未来

I believe this is a moral issue.|我坚信这是一个道德问题

It is your time to seize this issue.|是时候着手解决它了

It is our time to rise again, to secure our future.|人类要站起来 保护我们的未来

There's nothing that unusual about what I'm doing with this.|我今天所做的一切 没有什么特别的

What is unusual is that I had the privilege to be shown it|不同的是 在还年轻的时候

as a young man.|我就有幸能向人们展示这一切

Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Al Gore.|女士们先生们 有请阿尔·戈尔先生

It's almost as if a window was opened through which|像是开了一扇窗

the future was very clearly visible.|而未来就在眼前

"See that?" he said, "See that?|“看到了吗？”他说 “你看到了吗？”

"That's the future in which you are going to live your life. "|“这就是你赖以生存的未来”

Future generations|我们的后代

may well have occasion to ask themselves,|偶尔也会自问

"What were our parents thinking?|“我们的长辈们是怎么回事？”

"Why didn't they wake up when they had a chance?"|“在来得及的时候 为什么都不知道清醒”

We have to hear that question from them, now.|他们的问题 我们现在就应该想到

正片还未结束 请耐心看完后面的内容

现在就改变生活 你准备好了吗？

气候危机可以解决

就从这里开始

访问 www.climatecrisis.net

你能减少你的二氧化碳排放

甚至减少到0

导  演 戴维斯·古根海姆

购买节能电器：比如节能灯泡

改进你的调温器：换成定时的 减少冷暖气的能耗

对房屋作节能评估 改进隔热性能

加强能源的循环利用

有能力的话 请购买混合动力汽车

多步行 或者骑自行车

乘坐轻轨或者地铁

告诉你的父母不要毁了 你以后赖以生存的世界

如果你是家长 请与你的孩子一起

拯救他们以后赖以生存的世界

使用可再生能源

咨询当地能源公司 是否提供绿色能源

如果他们不提供 询问原因

选举致力于解决气候危机的领导人

上书国会

如不采纳 就参加国会竞选

植树：种很多很多树

到所在社区呼吁

参与电台热线、在报纸上宣传

坚决减少美国的二氧化碳排放

联合国际上的力量 阻止全球变暖

减少我们对进口石油的依赖

帮助农民种植醇类燃料作物

提高能源经济标准 减少汽车尾气排放

如果你祷告

祈祷人类能拿出改变的勇气

《清醒吧》词曲/演唱 玛丽莎·艾瑟里奇

非洲的古谚说

当你祈祷的时候 也同时采取行动

鼓励身边的人都来观看这部电影

尽可能了解气候危机的知识

然后把知识变成行动的力量